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The same reading, run over every results release of 99 large US companies since 2021 and added up by quarter. The answers are probabilities, so they add up into shares: how many companies raised guidance, how many describe pressured margins.

2,238 releases · Jan 13, 2021 to Oct 1, 2026

Releases published in Q3 2026 (Jul–Sep) · 96 companies

Raised guidance
44%
+15 pts vs Q3 2025
2021Q3 2026
Lowered guidance
2%
−1 pt vs Q3 2025
2021Q3 2026
Margin pressure
18%
−10 pts vs Q3 2025
2021Q3 2026
Weakening demand
8%
−3 pts vs Q3 2025
2021Q3 2026

Q4 2026 is under way: 2 releases so far.

What stands out in Q3 2026

Records since 2021 and the largest moves against the same quarter a year earlier.

  • Raised guidance: 44% of releases, the highest of any quarter since 2021, up 15 pts from Q3 2025.
  • Clearly strong results: 71% of releases, up 23 pts from Q3 2025.
  • Tariffs: 17% of releases, down 11 pts from Q3 2025.
  • Weak results: 3% of releases, down 10 pts from Q3 2025.
  • Margin pressure: 18% of releases, down 10 pts from Q3 2025.
  • Guarded outlook: 8% of releases, down 7 pts from Q3 2025.

Guidance: who raised, who lowered

Share of the releases published each quarter.

42%raised minus lowered, Q3 2026
Raised guidanceLowered guidance
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
44%
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Show as table
QuarterReleasesRaisedLoweredMixedReaffirmedNew periodWithdrawnNo guidance
Q1 20219710%1%0%5%43%3%37%
Q2 20219623%1%3%16%20%0%38%
Q3 20219735%4%5%8%13%0%34%
Q4 20219729%4%7%6%16%0%37%
Q1 20229710%2%1%2%49%0%35%
Q2 20229714%8%6%24%12%0%35%
Q3 20229719%5%9%21%13%2%31%
Q4 20229725%11%5%14%15%0%29%
Q1 2023978%1%1%6%52%0%32%
Q2 20239819%6%5%20%16%0%33%
Q3 20239823%7%7%14%17%0%31%
Q4 20239824%11%6%10%15%1%32%
Q1 2024977%3%2%4%52%0%32%
Q2 20249722%5%2%24%19%0%29%
Q3 20249430%7%3%9%22%0%29%
Q4 20249823%6%5%13%21%1%30%
Q1 2025982%1%2%10%55%0%30%
Q2 2025989%7%5%24%20%1%33%
Q3 20259829%3%3%15%15%1%34%
Q4 20259829%3%6%10%17%0%35%
Q1 2026985%1%0%8%57%0%29%
Q2 20269822%1%2%27%18%0%30%
Q3 20269644%2%2%10%9%0%32%

The first quarter of every year is low on both sides because most companies are then giving guidance for a new year, which has nothing to be raised or lowered against. Compare a quarter with the same quarter of other years.

How the quarter reads

How strong the reported results are, as the release describes them. Share of the releases published each quarter.

Clearly strong results
Releases that report broad growth or records on the key metrics
71%+23 pts vs Q3 2025
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Show as table
Q1 202145%
Q2 202166%
Q3 202176%
Q4 202170%
Q1 202274%
Q2 202246%
Q3 202245%
Q4 202243%
Q1 202339%
Q2 202334%
Q3 202345%
Q4 202346%
Q1 202447%
Q2 202440%
Q3 202454%
Q4 202449%
Q1 202555%
Q2 202545%
Q3 202548%
Q4 202562%
Q1 202655%
Q2 202658%
Q3 202671%
Weak results
Releases whose results read as somewhat or clearly weak
3%−10 pts vs Q3 2025
0%
10%
20%
30%
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Show as table
Q1 202121%
Q2 202111%
Q3 20212%
Q4 20215%
Q1 20222%
Q2 20229%
Q3 202211%
Q4 202214%
Q1 202314%
Q2 202317%
Q3 202315%
Q4 202312%
Q1 202412%
Q2 20249%
Q3 202411%
Q4 202413%
Q1 20258%
Q2 202516%
Q3 202513%
Q4 20259%
Q1 20268%
Q2 20266%
Q3 20263%

Pressure points

Releases that describe squeezed margins, weaker demand or a guarded management. Share of the releases published each quarter.

Margin pressure
Releases that describe declining or pressured margins
18%−10 pts vs Q3 2025
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Show as table
Q1 202133%
Q2 202120%
Q3 202115%
Q4 202125%
Q1 202229%
Q2 202235%
Q3 202238%
Q4 202240%
Q1 202342%
Q2 202333%
Q3 202327%
Q4 202324%
Q1 202422%
Q2 202420%
Q3 202418%
Q4 202423%
Q1 202522%
Q2 202520%
Q3 202528%
Q4 202526%
Q1 202628%
Q2 202620%
Q3 202618%
Weakening demand
Releases that describe weaker demand, orders or bookings
8%−3 pts vs Q3 2025
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Show as table
Q1 202129%
Q2 202117%
Q3 20215%
Q4 20215%
Q1 20226%
Q2 20229%
Q3 202211%
Q4 202218%
Q1 202318%
Q2 202316%
Q3 202320%
Q4 202319%
Q1 202416%
Q2 202413%
Q3 202415%
Q4 202415%
Q1 202513%
Q2 202519%
Q3 202511%
Q4 202512%
Q1 202613%
Q2 20268%
Q3 20268%
Caution
Releases where management voices at least moderate uncertainty
18%−3 pts vs Q3 2025
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Show as table
Q1 202134%
Q2 202124%
Q3 202127%
Q4 202122%
Q1 202221%
Q2 202229%
Q3 202233%
Q4 202231%
Q1 202324%
Q2 202322%
Q3 202320%
Q4 202320%
Q1 202416%
Q2 202421%
Q3 202419%
Q4 202417%
Q1 202517%
Q2 202532%
Q3 202521%
Q4 202517%
Q1 202615%
Q2 202621%
Q3 202618%
Guarded outlook
Releases whose outlook is neutral or negative, or that give none
8%−7 pts vs Q3 2025
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Show as table
Q1 202113%
Q2 20219%
Q3 20217%
Q4 20218%
Q1 20228%
Q2 202212%
Q3 202223%
Q4 202222%
Q1 202315%
Q2 202317%
Q3 202313%
Q4 202317%
Q1 202414%
Q2 202412%
Q3 202414%
Q4 202417%
Q1 202510%
Q2 202521%
Q3 202515%
Q4 202517%
Q1 20269%
Q2 202612%
Q3 20268%

Themes

Topics the release says affect the business. Share of the releases published each quarter; the exact questions are on the method page.

Tariffs
Releases that say tariffs or trade restrictions affect the business
17%−11 pts vs Q3 2025
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Show as table
Q1 20212%
Q2 20211%
Q3 20212%
Q4 20211%
Q1 20222%
Q2 20222%
Q3 20222%
Q4 20222%
Q1 20231%
Q2 20230%
Q3 20231%
Q4 20230%
Q1 20242%
Q2 20242%
Q3 20242%
Q4 20243%
Q1 20254%
Q2 202534%
Q3 202528%
Q4 202519%
Q1 202619%
Q2 202617%
Q3 202617%
AI
Releases that present AI as a driver of demand, revenue or investment
24%+5 pts vs Q3 2025
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Show as table
Q1 20213%
Q2 20213%
Q3 20215%
Q4 20215%
Q1 20226%
Q2 20225%
Q3 20226%
Q4 20226%
Q1 20237%
Q2 202314%
Q3 202314%
Q4 202314%
Q1 202418%
Q2 202416%
Q3 202419%
Q4 202422%
Q1 202520%
Q2 202515%
Q3 202519%
Q4 202523%
Q1 202622%
Q2 202628%
Q3 202624%
Supply chain
Releases that say supply chain problems hurt results or the outlook
3%+3 pts vs Q3 2025
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Show as table
Q1 20213%
Q2 20216%
Q3 20219%
Q4 202115%
Q1 202221%
Q2 202222%
Q3 202214%
Q4 20229%
Q1 20239%
Q2 20234%
Q3 20232%
Q4 20230%
Q1 20241%
Q2 20241%
Q3 20241%
Q4 20241%
Q1 20250%
Q2 20251%
Q3 20250%
Q4 20250%
Q1 20261%
Q2 20263%
Q3 20263%
Restructuring
Releases that report job cuts or restructuring
26%+7 pts vs Q3 2025
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Show as table
Q1 202127%
Q2 202120%
Q3 202115%
Q4 202115%
Q1 202220%
Q2 202214%
Q3 202214%
Q4 202216%
Q1 202332%
Q2 202320%
Q3 202326%
Q4 202326%
Q1 202438%
Q2 202423%
Q3 202427%
Q4 202424%
Q1 202536%
Q2 202524%
Q3 202519%
Q4 202524%
Q1 202634%
Q2 202623%
Q3 202626%

By sector, last 12 months

Share of each sector's releases; the darker the cell, the larger the share. Point at a cell to see the 12 months before. Sorted by raised minus lowered. Sectors with fewer than 5 companies are listed last: one release moves them a lot.

SectorCompaniesRaisedLoweredMargin pressureWeak demandCautionTariffsAIRestructuring
Health Care15
47%
3%
28%
13%
8%
12%
17%
18%
Industrials12
36%
0%
32%
6%
11%
26%
2%
36%
Information Technology12
27%
0%
4%
4%
27%
17%
79%
17%
Consumer Staples11
23%
7%
52%
32%
30%
36%
5%
55%
Communication Services8
16%
0%
34%
16%
13%
3%
44%
22%
Consumer Discretionary10
18%
5%
20%
15%
28%
40%
28%
48%
Financials18
8%
0%
4%
0%
17%
8%
10%
17%
Energy5
6%
0%
35%
12%
29%
6%
29%
24%
Real Estate2
75%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
50%
13%
Materials2
50%
0%
50%
25%
0%
0%
13%
38%
Utilities4
0%
0%
0%
0%
25%
25%
13%
0%

Who said what in Q3 2026

Each name opens the company's releases since 2021.

Raised guidance42

3MAbbott LaboratoriesAdobeAltriaAmerican ExpressAmerican TowerBiogenBlackRockBristol Myers SquibbCoca-ColaColgate-PalmoliveCVS HealthDanaherDowDuPontEli LillyEmerson ElectricFordGE AerospaceGeneral MotorsGilead SciencesHoneywellJohnson & JohnsonKinder MorganLockheed MartinMedtronicMerckMeta PlatformsMondelezOraclePayPalPfizerRTXSalesforceSimon Property GroupStarbucksTargetUnion PacificUnitedHealth GroupUPSVerizonWalmart

Lowered or withdrew guidance2

AbbVieLowe's

Describe weakening demand8

AltriaCharter CommunicationsChevronIBMKraft HeinzLowe'sMerckProcter & Gamble

Describe margin pressure17

AltriaBoeingBristol Myers SquibbCharter CommunicationsComcastGE AerospaceHoneywellIBMKraft HeinzMerckMeta PlatformsMondelezPayPalPepsiCoProcter & GambleSLBTesla

The 99 companies

The S&P 100 as of December 2020. Each one opens its releases since 2021; the label is what it said about guidance in the latest release on record. For the newest filing of any company, run the analysis live.

Communication Services

AlphabetGOOGNo guidanceAT&TTReaffirmedCharter CommunicationsCHTRReaffirmedComcastCMCSANo guidanceMeta PlatformsMETARaisedNetflixNFLXReaffirmedVerizonVZRaisedWalt DisneyDISReaffirmed

Consumer Discretionary

AmazonAMZNNew periodBooking HoldingsBKNGNew periodFordFRaisedGeneral MotorsGMRaisedHome DepotHDReaffirmedLowe'sLOWLoweredMcDonald'sMCDNo guidanceNikeNKENew periodStarbucksSBUXRaisedTeslaTSLANo guidance

Consumer Staples

AltriaMORaisedCoca-ColaKORaisedColgate-PalmoliveCLRaisedCostcoCOSTNo guidanceKraft HeinzKHCMixedMondelezMDLZRaisedPepsiCoPEPReaffirmedPhilip Morris InternationalPMMixedProcter & GamblePGNew periodTargetTGTRaisedWalmartWMTRaised

Energy

ChevronCVXNo guidanceConocoPhillipsCOPReaffirmedExxonMobilXOMNo guidanceKinder MorganKMIRaisedSLBSLBNo guidance

Financials

AllstateALLNo guidanceAmerican ExpressAXPRaisedAmerican International GroupAIGNo guidanceBank of AmericaBACNo guidanceBerkshire HathawayBRK-BNo guidanceBlackRockBLKRaisedBNYBNYNo guidanceCapital OneCOFNo guidanceCitigroupCNo guidanceGoldman SachsGSNo guidanceJPMorgan ChaseJPMNo guidanceMastercardMANo guidanceMetLifeMETNo guidanceMorgan StanleyMSNo guidancePayPalPYPLRaisedU.S. BancorpUSBNo guidanceVisaVNo guidanceWells FargoWFCNo guidance

Health Care

Abbott LaboratoriesABTRaisedAbbVieABBVLoweredAmgenAMGNNew periodBiogenBIIBRaisedBristol Myers SquibbBMYRaisedCVS HealthCVSRaisedDanaherDHRRaisedEli LillyLLYRaisedGilead SciencesGILDRaisedJohnson & JohnsonJNJRaisedMedtronicMDTRaisedMerckMRKRaisedPfizerPFERaisedThermo Fisher ScientificTMONew periodUnitedHealth GroupUNHRaised

Industrials

3MMMMRaisedBoeingBANo guidanceCaterpillarCATNo guidanceEmerson ElectricEMRRaisedFedExFDXNew periodGE AerospaceGERaisedGeneral DynamicsGDNo guidanceHoneywellHONRaisedLockheed MartinLMTRaisedRTXRTXRaisedUnion PacificUNPRaisedUPSUPSRaised

Information Technology

AccentureACNNew periodAdobeADBERaisedAppleAAPLNo guidanceCiscoCSCONew periodIBMIBMNo guidanceIntelINTCNew periodMicrosoftMSFTNo guidanceNvidiaNVDANew periodOracleORCLRaisedQualcommQCOMNew periodSalesforceCRMRaisedTexas InstrumentsTXNNo guidance

Materials

DowDOWRaisedDuPontDDRaised

Real Estate

American TowerAMTRaisedSimon Property GroupSPGRaised

Utilities

Duke EnergyDUKReaffirmedExelonEXCReaffirmedNextEra EnergyNEEReaffirmedSouthern CompanySONo guidance